Despite expanding at an annual rate of nearly 9 percent, China's economy ha
s exhibited a marked cyclical pattern: Periods of rapid growth, accompanied
by accelerating inflation, are followed by contractions during which both
growth and inflation fall. A widening gap also emerged between the output c
ontribution of the state sector and its share of investment and employment,
In this paper, we offen a consistent explanation for this behavior that re
flects several key institutional features of China's economic reform: (i) e
conomic decentralization, (ii) the government's commitment to the state sec
tor, and (iii) the credit lan and credit control.