A new reliability growth model: its mathematical comparison to the Duane model

The Duane reliability growth model has been traditionally used to model ele ctronic systems undergoing development testing. This paper proposes a new r eliability growth model derived from variance stabilisation transformation theory which surpasses the Duane model in typical reliability growth situat ions. This new model is simpler to plot and fits the data more closely than the Duane model whenever the Duane slope is less than 0.5. This paper expl ores the mathematical relationships between these two models; and shows tha t at a Duane slope of 0.5, both models are mathematically equivalent in the ir capacity to fit the observed data. The instantaneous MTBF of the new mod el is also developed and compared to that of Duane. As the new model is inf luenced by the later failures, compared to early failures for the Duane mod el, it has the further advantage of leading to reduced test times for achie ving a specified instantaneous MTBF. As the reliability of electronic syste ms increases, this has positive implications for testing. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.