The model SCIARA, based on the "Cellular Automata'' paradigm, is a versatil
e instrument whose scope is to analyse volcanic risk from lava flows.
The possible fields of intervention are:
[(a)] Long term forecasting of the flow direction at various eruption rates
and points of emission by locating potential risk areas and permitting the
creation of detailed maps of risk;
(b) The possibility to follow the progress of an event and predict its evol
ution;
(c) The verification of the possible effects of human intervention on real
or simulated flows in stream deviation.
A risk scenario has been developed for the Etnean territories of the towns
of Nicolosi, Pedara and S. Alfio, simulating possible episodes with differe
nt vent locations along the fracture opened in the 1989 eruption and succes
sively activated in the 1991-1993 eruption.
The main characteristics of lava flows, that might be dangerous to the inha
bited areas, have been analysed on the basis of the carried out Cellular Au
tomata.