Prediction of recovery of continuous memory after traumatic brain injury

Objective: To evaluate the ability of measures of initial severity, tests o f attention, and demographic characteristics to predict recovery of continu ous memory for words over a 24-hour period in patients with acute traumatic brain injury. Methods: Recovery of continuous memory was assessed prospect ively in 94 patients with nonpenetrating traumatic brain injury. A classifi cation and regression tree analysis identified a hierarchical subset of var iables that may be used as a simple guideline for predicting recovery of co ntinuous memory. Weibull regression models evaluated and compared the predi ctive ability of multiple variables. Results: Four groups of patients were identified based on measures of severity of injury and demographic characte ristics. These four groups had recovery profiles that were more precise tha n could be obtained by using the Glasgow Coma Scale alone: mild, about 1 we ek to recovery of continuous memory; moderate, 1 to 4 weeks; severe, 2 to 6 weeks; and extremely severe, 4 to 8 weeks. Regression analysis confirmed t hat measures of capacity (inherent resources such as indicated by age) and compromise (general functional brain state measured neuropsychologically) i mproved prediction over models based only on injury severity measures, such as the Glasgow Coma Scale. Conclusions: Approaches to predicting recovery of continuous memory in the acute period after traumatic brain injury that take into account multiple measures provide a more sensitive predictive ind ex.