Materials availability for large-scale thin-film photovoltaics

The objective of this paper is to discuss to what extent materials availabi lity could restrain the expansion of PV systems based on CdTe, CIGS, aSiGe and nanocrystalline dye-sensitised cells. The investigated elements are cad mium, tellurium, indium, gallium, selenium, germanium and ruthenium. Materi als requirement, annual availability and available stock of resources are a ssessed. The material constrained growth of installed capacity in the year 2020 is estimated at about 20 Gwp/year for CdTe and dye-sensitised cells, 7 0 GWp/year for CIGS nad 200 GWp/year for aSiGe. These potentials are reache d through decreased materials requirement and increased materials availabil ity. Metal prices are assumed to rise. With pessimistic assumptions, the po tentials decrease by one or two orders of magnitude. Implications for publi c policy and firm strategy are briefly discussed. Copyright (C) 2000 John W iley & Sons, Ltd.