With the dramatic improvements in the oral health of children in Australia
that have occurred over the past two decades, the option of, and the need f
or, targeted prevention of dental caries for those at high risk has become
apparent. Since caries is of multifactorial aetiology, the clinical outcome
varies depending on which factor, or combination of factors, is prominent
in a particular individual; this may be related to both age and stage of li
fe. Tests for caries risk can assist in prediction, but clinical signs and
history are as important in assessing the main cause(s) of caries in an ind
ividual. In studies involving several factors, past caries experience (espe
cially of the first permanent molar) continues to be the best predictor of
future caries in children. Despite their ready availability, tests in the f
orm of commercial kits are still expensive; no one test is an adequate pred
ictor of caries risk, and the specificity and sensitivity of the tests are
not reliably diagnostic for an individual. There is a need for regional lon
gitudinal risk assessment studies in which potential risk factors are ident
ified before the onset of caries in order to maximize predictive power and
then validated against subsequent caries. Caries activity may not be able t
o be predicted in a population with low disease prevalence. Any risk assess
ment strategy must be followed by appropriate preventive interventions.