Modelling the impact of predicted climate change on landslide frequency and magnitude in SE England

General circulation models (GCMs) predict an increase in rainfall and tempe rature for SE England as a consequence of the build up of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in the global atmosphere. This paper uses a geographi cal information system (GIS)-based combined slope hydrology/stability model linked to downscaled GCM data to assess the likely impact of such a change on the frequency and magnitude of landslide activity. The model has been a pplied to a 4 km section of the Lower Greensand escarpment near Hythe, Kent , SE England which has a history of landslide activity, and is typical of m any inland landslides in SE England. The results indicate that increases in rainfall will be matched by increases in evapotranspiration, leaving the f requency of large landslides unchanged. However, the modelling suggests an increased dynamism of shallow soil moisture stores which may lead to a redu ction in frequency of smaller landslides over the next 80 years. (C) 2000 E lsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.