Decision theoretic effects in testing a causal conditional

Recent decision theoretic analyses of causal judgment and of performance on the selection task have both been very productive but these two areas rema in unintegrated. We first indicate how to integrate them in the case of a c ausal selection task and then confirm that people's decisions in a causal s election task (N = 156) are indeed sensitive to the probabilistic context o f a causal claim. Our results rule out accounts that ignore the set size of supposed cause and supposed effect or the probability judgements which ref lect these.