On the development of predictive models with applications to a metallurgical process

A methodology for constructing useful predictive models, primarily intended for use on line by the process supervisors as a basis for decision making, is presented. The methodology mainly relies on a sound choice of model str ucture for black-box models-a choice based on a clear definition of the mod eling goal. Some simple approaches to the treatment of a combination of eve nt-driven and continuous information in predictive models are also proposed . Furthermore, directional considerations in the tracking of time-variant p arameters are illustrated to be of considerable practical importance for ob taining accurate models, and such considerations are possible to implement without prior knowledge of the underlying dynamics. The topics treated are finally applied to a prediction problem of industrial importance: The succe ss of the case study clearly motivates the careful consideration of differe nt modeling options.