Homogeneous nucleation of sulfuric acid and water associated with urba
n fogs was examined. We approached the problem by analyzing the factor
s determining the gas-phase sulfuric acid concentration, and thereby i
dentifying the ambient conditions where new particle production is exp
ected to occur. We showed that H2SO4(g) concentration is in steady sta
te with respect to its production and depletion via condensation in ur
ban environment. Based on this, a simple formula was derived for estim
ating the nucleation probability from temperature, fine dry aerosol ma
ss, and SO2(g) concentration and its oxidation rate during the post-fo
g conditions. The major uncertainty is associated with the value of th
e accommodation coefficient for sulfuric acid condensation on water. N
ucleation was shown to be most favorable around 90% relative humidity
after the dissipation of fog. We calculated a very high nucleation pro
bability associated with fog observed in the San Joaquin Valley of Cal
ifornia. In the South Coast Air Basin of Los Angeles, post-fog nucleat
ion was predicted to occur frequently in Hawthorne and Long Beach, and
occasionally at several other locations.