Md. Hughes et al., MONITORING PLASMA HIV-1 RNA LEVELS IN ADDITION TO CD4(+) LYMPHOCYTE COUNT IMPROVES ASSESSMENT OF ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPEUTIC RESPONSE, Annals of internal medicine, 126(12), 1997, pp. 929-938
Background: CD4(+) lymphocyte counts and plasma HIV-1 RNA levels predi
ct progression of HIV-related disease, but the relative importance of
these and other virological factors in defining response to antiretrov
iral therapy is not yet clear. Objective: To determine the short-term
variability of plasma HIV-1 RNA level during stable therapy; the relat
ive importance of pretreatment values and early changes in CD4(+) coun
t, HIV-1 RNA levels, and infectious HIV-1 titers in mononuclear cells
of peripheral blood and pretreatment syncytium-inducing phenotype of a
n HIV-1 isolate for prediction of disease progression and decline in C
D4(+) counts during therapy. Design: Data were collected prospectively
in a randomized, clinical trial comparing two combination regimens (A
CTG [AIDS Clinical Trials Group] Protocol 241) and pooled across treat
ments. Setting: 8 AIDS Clinical Trials Units. Patients: 198 adults wit
h HIV-1 infection and no more than 350 CD4(+) lymphocytes/mm(3) who ha
d received at least 6 months of nucleoside therapy. Interventions: All
patients received zidovudine and didanosine; 100 received nevirapine
and 98 received placebo. Measurements: CD4(+) lymphocyte counts, plasm
a HIV-1 RNA levels, and infectious HIV-1 titers in cells were measured
before and 8 and 48 weeks after study treatment. Assay for the syncyt
ium-inducing viral phenotype was done at baseline. Progression was def
ined as occurrence of opportunistic infection, malignancy, or death du
ring the 48 weeks after treatment began. Results: The difference betwe
en two measurements of HIV-1 RNA levels at baseline was within +/-0.39
log(10) copies/mL (2.5-fold) for 90% of 167 patients receiving stable
therapy. In a multivariate model, risk for disease progression was re
duced by 56% (95% CI, 8% to 79% [P = 0.028]) for every 10-fold lower H
IV-1 RNA level at baseline, by 52% (CI, 6% increase to 79% reduction [
P = 0.071]) for every 10-fold reduction in HIV-1 RNA level at 8 weeks
after treatment initiation, and by 67% (CI, 42% to 81% [P < 0.001]) fo
r every 2-fold higher CD4(+) count at baseline. These risk factors and
syncytium-inducing viral phenotype at baseline, but not infectious HI
V-1 titers in circulating cells, were associated with change in CD4(+)
counts over 48 weeks. Conclusions: For an individual patient, a chang
e in plasma HIV-1 RNA level of 2.5-fold or more probably indicates a t
rue biological change. Monitoring HIV-I RNA levels and CD4(+) lymphocy
tes before a change in antiretroviral treatment and monitoring HIV-1 R
NA levers shortly thereafter improves prediction of disease progressio
n and decline in CD4(+) counts for 1 year compared with monitoring CD4
(+) counts or HIV-1 RNA levels alone. Additional monitoring of infecti
ous HIV-1 titers in mononuclear cells of peripheral blood is not usefu
l.