The future development of stratospheric ozone layer depends on the concentr
ation of chlorine and bromine containing species. The stratosphere is also
expected to be affected by future enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gas
es. These result in a cooling of the winter polar stratosphere and to more
stable polar vortices which leads to enhanced chemical depletion and reduce
d transport of ozone into high latitudes. One of the driving forces behind
the interest in stratospheric ozone is the impact of ozone on solar UV-B ra
diation. In this study UV scenarios have been constructed based on ozone pr
edictions from the chemistry-climate model runs carried out by GISS, UKMO a
nd DLR. Since cloudiness, albedo and terrain height are also important fact
ors, climatological values of these quantities are taken into account in th
e UV calculations. Relative to 1979-92 conditions, for the 2010-2020 time p
eriod the GISS model results indicate a springtime enhancement of erythemal
UV doses of up to 90% in the 60-90 degrees N region and an enhancement of
100% in the 60-90 degrees S region. The corresponding maximum increases in
the annual Northern Hemispheric UV doses are estimated to be 14 % in 2010-2
0, and 2 % in 2040-50. In the Southern Hemisphere 40 % enhancement is expec
ted during 2010-20 and 27 % duping 2040-50.