Whether job due dates are set internally or externally, it is critical for
the shop floor controller to be able to accurately predict job lead times.
Previous research has shown that utilizing information on the congestion le
vels along a job's route is more valuable than overall shop congestion leve
ls when predicting job lead times. While this information is easily attaine
d in a simulation model, in industrial applications the task may be conside
rably more difficult, especially when lot splitting is used to accelerate m
aterial flow. We examine the effectiveness of three lead time estimation pr
ocedures which utilize different shop information in bottleneck-constrained
production systems where lot splitting is practiced under a variety of exp
erimental conditions. The results indicate that accurate lead time estimate
s can be obtained using information pertaining solely to the bottleneck wor
k centre when the bottleneck is at an entry work centre. This offers operat
ions managers a substantial ease in implementation over previously reported
methods. The results also show that the operations managers interested in
accurately estimating job lead times are well advised to take advantage of
the excess capacity at non-bottleneck work centres by performing additional
setups, and take measures that reduce bottleneck shiftiness.