The possibility that future solid polymer fuel cell vehicles will be fuelle
d by methanal has been suggested. if this is the case, it will have signifi
cant implications for the future structure of the methanol supply industry,
and methanal supply and availability may have an impact on the lake-up of
these SPFC vehicles. In this study, a model assessing the possible future p
enetration of methanal SPFC vehicles was constructed. This suggested that i
t would be possible for SPFC vehicles to achieve rapid market: penetration
after an initially slow start. A further model indicated that methanol supp
ly would be adequate Ear vehicle demand until about 2013, when significant
new capacity would be required. The cost of this new capacity was estimated
, along with the cost of providing refuelling infrastructure such as road t
ankers, storage, and suitable fuelling stations. Amortising the cost over a
short period (to 2013) could double the pre-tax price of methanol as a fue
l, while over a longer timeframe (to 2029) it would add less than 10% to th
is value. The model suggests that methanol capacity need not be a constrain
t to the future introduction of SPFC vehicles using it as a fuel, but; that
other factors such as fuel purity and safety must be carefully considered
before real costs can be calculated. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rig
hts reserved.