The belief that rodent cancer bioassays predict for human cancers is a fund
amental public health precept based on sound biological principles. Nonethe
less, it is appropriate to periodically debate this point as scientific und
erstanding of cancer causation advances. This presentation addresses one of
the many factors that determines the predictive value of rodent tumor bioa
ssay results for human health: This is the issue of dose. Examination of se
veral recent National Toxicology Program (NTP) studies demonstrates that th
e applied dose often far overestimates the actual effective dose, or maximu
m blood concentration attained in a rodent, when compared with similar rela
tionships in humans. Further examination of the NTP database on rodent toxi
city and carcinogenicity studies revealed summary information on factors th
at were pivotal in prechronic studies for selecting doses for chronic studi
es. Contrary to popular belief, target organ toxicity was a determining fac
tor in only about,half of the studies. The typically minimal nature of the
lesions which limit doses for chronic studies is described for several comm
on target sites. Taken together, these facts paint a far different picture
than the common public perception of the ''massive'' doses used in chronic
rodent studies and suggest that, in some cases, dose limitations are actual
ly so severe as to limit the sensitivity of a chronic bioassay to detect a
carcinogenic effect.