Heat exchangers operating in the power and process industries are fouled to
a greater or lesser extent depending on surface temperature, surface condi
tion, material of construction, fluid velocity, flow geometry and fluid com
position. This fouling phenomenon is time-dependent and will result in a de
crease in the thermal effectiveness of a heat exchanger. Once the thermal e
ffectiveness decreases to a minimum acceptable level, cleaning of the equip
ment becomes necessary to restore the performance. In this paper, we presen
t a simple probabilistic approach to characterize various fouling models th
at are commonly encountered in many industrial processes. These random foul
ing growth models are then used to investigate the impact on risk-based the
rmal effectiveness, overall heat-transfer coefficient and the hot- and cold
-fluid outlet temperatures of a shell-and-tube heat exchanger. All the resu
lts are presented in a generalized form in order to demonstrate the general
ity of the risk-based procedure discussed in this paper. (C) 2000 Elsevier
Science Ltd. All rights reserved.