Long-term electricity demand in China - From quantitative to qualitative growth?

This paper develops scenarios of electricity demand in China until 2010, at a national, a sectoral and a regional level. It takes into account the rec ent macroeconomic downturn in the Chinese economy and the potential effects of deregulation and price increases in the power sector. The medium-growth scenario hints at a gross electricity demand of 1500 TWh in 2010; should t he structural change from agriculture and heavy industry towards light indu stry and services accelerate, electricity demand may be another 10% lower. These figures are significantly below the projections fixed in the governme nt's 9th five-year plan, which forecasts a demand of 2500 TWh. The aggregat e and sectoral scenarios imply that current development plans for generatin g capacity and coal consumption until 2010, too, need to be scaled down. Th e disaggregation at the level of the 13 inter-provincial and provincial pow er grids hints at potential regional discrepancies: the large industrial ar eas in eastern China and the Central region are likely to face overcapacity , whereas North China and the peripheral regions may face deficits. (C) 200 0 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.