Preferences for improving and declining sequences of health outcomes

Whereas choices among individual outcomes at different points in time gener ally show a positive time preference, choices between sequences of outcomes usually show a negative time preference, that is, a preference for improve ment. The present studies explored how this preference for improving sequen ces is moderated by expectations about how sequences are usually experience d. Subjects in three experiments evaluated four types of health sequences w ith multiple sequence lengths. The length of the sequence and the particula r health attribute described influenced both preferences and expectations s uch that preferences tracked expectations about how the sequences would rea listically occur. Several mechanisms by which expectations could influence preferences are discussed. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.