What does it mean to know a cumulative risk? Adolescents' perceptions of short-term and long-term consequences of smoking

A particularly important aspect of risk is its cumulative nature, when expo sure to a hazard occurs repeatedly over time. The degree to which people un derstand cumulative risk has important theoretical and social implications. The latter play a role in disputes about whether those who smoke cigarette s know the risks of that activity. Proponents of the view that cigarette sm oking reflects rational choices made by people well informed about the risk s assume that knowledge of smoking risks is adequately assessed in terms of perceptions of the long-term risks. However, there is reason to question t his assumption. The risks of smoking cumulate, one cigarette at a time. The present study demonstrates that a high percentage of adolescent smokers se e no health risk from smoking the next cigarette or even from smoking regul arly for the 'first few years'. This denial of 'short-term' risks, coupled with a tendency observed in other studies for young smokers to underestimat e the addictive properties of tobacco, indicates that many young people do not really understand the risks from smoking cigarettes. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.