Predictors of desistance among sex offenders: The interaction of formal and informal social controls

Increasing attention is being given to the issue of desistance or cessation in adult criminal careers. We contribute to this research by considering h ow informal and formal social controls affect recidivism among 556 sex offe nders placed on probation in 1992. We conduct an event history analysis of reoffense, based on the predictions of Sampson and Laub's and Gottfredson a nd Hirschi's control theories. We build on these perspectives by examining how informal social controls condition the effects of formal social control s generally and across offense types. We find less recidivism among offende rs with stable job histories, particularly among those in court-ordered sex offender treatment. The results add both to theoretical formulations conce rning desistance and recidivism and to policy formulations directed at grow ing prison populations.