A model to estimate the probability of hepatitis B- and Haemophilus influenzae type b-vaccine uptake into national vaccination programs

Most countries have been slow to adopt new vaccines into national vaccinati on schedules, despite recommendations from global multi-lateral agencies. C haracteristics of countries that have adopted hepatitis B (HB) vaccine were analysed and used to formulate a logistic regression model. The model was applied to country-specific data to predict HB and Haemophilus influenzae t ype b (Hib) vaccine uptake. The greatest predictors of HB uptake were cover age rates of other vaccines, vaccine cost relative to the economy, and perc eived disease burden. The logistic regression model's probability estimate of vaccine uptake agreed well with observed data for HB and Hib, (c-statist ic 85 and 82%, respectively). Application of this model to other antigens m ay aid in predicting potential national markets to better plan new vaccine supply and demand. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights r eserved.