Objective: This study aimed to describe the natural course of DSM-III-R alc
ohol disorders as a function of age at first alcohol use and to investigate
the influence of early use as a risk factor for progression to the develop
ment of alcohol disorders, exclusive of the effect of confounding influence
s.
Method: Data were obtained from a community sample (N=5,856) of lifetime dr
inkers participating in the 1990-1991 Mental Health Supplement of the Ontar
io Health Survey.
Results: Survival analyses revealed a rapid progression to alcohol-related
harm among those who reported having their first drink at ages 11-14. After
10 years, 13.5% of the subjects who began to drink at ages 11 and 12 met t
he criteria for a diagnosis of alcohol abuse, and 15.9% had a diagnosis of
dependence. Rates for subjects who began to drink at ages 13 and 14 were 13
.7% and 9.0%, respectively. In contrast, rates for those who started drinki
ng at ages 19 and older were 2.0% and 1.0%. Unexpectedly, a delay in progre
ssion to harm was observed for the youngest drinkers (ages 10 and under). H
azard regression analyses revealed a nonlinear effect of age at first alcoh
ol use, marked by an elevated risk of developing disorders among subjects f
irst using alcohol at ages 11-14.
Conclusions: First use of alcohol at ages 11-14 greatly heightens the risk
of progression to the development of alcohol disorders and therefore is a r
easonable target for intervention strategies that seek to delay first use a
s a means of averting problems later in life.