Southern forest resource assessment using the subregional timber supply (SRTS) model

Most timber supply analyses are focused on broad regions. This paper descri bes a modeling system that uses a standard empirical framework applied to s ubregional inventory data in the South. Model results indicate significant within-region variation in supply responses across owners and regions. Proj ections of southern timber markets indicate that results are sensitive to: 1) estimates of current harvest; 2) conversion of natural stands to plantat ions; and 3) growth rates associated with plantations. Given projected incr eases in demand, intensive pine management could ameliorate real price incr eases. For hardwoods, uncertainty about the viability of intensive manageme nt or imports makes supply response projections less conclusive.