ESTIMATING THE PREVALENCE OF CANCER IN THE UNITED-STATES

BACKGROUND, Few reports have estimated the prevalence of persons in th e U.S. ever diagnosed with invasive cancer. METHODS, The Connecticut T umor Registry was used to identify all Connecticut residents ever diag nosed (1935-1994) with invasive cancer who were known to be alive in 1 994. Estimated prevalence rates for Connecticut were compared with tho se for 1982, and were applied to the total U.S. population for selecte d years. RESULTS, Some 95,361 persons ever diagnosed with invasive can cer(s) were confirmed as being alive at the end of 1994. The age-stand ardized prevalence rate had increased by 40% in males and 13% in femal es since 1982, due in part to large increases for breast, prostate, an d (in females) lung carcinoma. Using the data for Connecticut, an esti mated 7.1 million Americans in 1995 had ever been diagnosed with invas ive cancer; projected numbers were 7.7 million for 2000 and 13.2 milli on for 2030. CONCLUSIONS. The prevalence of persons ever diagnosed wit h invasive cancer could increase considerably in the coming decades, a nd numbers for elderly males could surpass those for elderly females b y 2020. Although projections must be interpreted with caution, these d ata emphasize the need for primary prevention of cancer and for studie s of cancer survivors. (C) 1997 American Cancer Society.