Our 10-year translational study of the oral premalignant lesion (OPL) model
has advanced the basic understanding of carcinogenesis. Although retinoids
have established activity in this model, a substantial percentage of our O
PL patients progress to cancer, especially after treatment is stopped, On t
he basis of our 10-year OPL study, we have developed the first comprehensiv
e tool for assessing cancer risk of OPL patients, This cancer risk assessme
nt tool incorporates medical/demographic variables, epidemiological factors
, and cellular and molecular biomarkers.
Between 1988 and 1991, 70 advanced OPL patients were enrolled in a chemopre
vention trial of induction with high dose isotretinoin (1.5 mg/kg/day for 3
months) followed by 9 months of maintenance treatment with either from dos
e isotretinoin (0.5 mg/kg/day) or beta-carotene (30 mg/d; total treatment d
uration, 1 year). We assessed the relationship between cancer risk Factors
and time to cancer development by means of exploratory data analysis, logra
nk test, Cox proportional hazard model, and recursive partitioning.
With a median follow-up of 7 years, 22 of our 70 patients (31.4%) developed
cancers in the upper aerodigestive tract following treatment. The overall
cancer incidence was 5.7% per year. The most predictive factors of cancer r
isk are OPL histology, cancer history, and three of the five biomarkers me
assessed (chromosomal polysomy, p53 protein expression, and loss of heteroz
ygosity at chromosome 3p or 9p). In the multivariable Cox model, histology
(P = 0.0003) and the combined biomarker score of chromosomal polysomy, p53,
and loss of heterozygosity (P = 0.0008) are the strongest predictors for c
ancer development. Retinoic acid receptor beta and micronuclei were not ass
ociated with increased cancer risk.
We have demonstrated a successful strategy of comprehensive cancer risk ass
essment in OPL patients. Combining conventional medical/demographic variabl
es and a panel of three biomarkers can identify high risk patients in our s
ample, This result will need to be validated by future studies. With the id
entification of high risk individuals more efficient chemoprevention trials
and molecular targeting studies can be designed.