In the nick of time: Conflict management, mediation timing, and the duration of interstate disputes

This paper develops a theoretical argument linking time and the timing of c onflict management efforts to dispute duration. We test competing hypothese s on conflict data drawn from disputes in the post-1945 period. Our analysi s demonstrates that the effects of mediation vary substantially over the co urse of a dispute. Specifically, we note that mediation has a curvilinear r elationship with time and the ending of disputes. Mediation efforts that oc cur soon after disputes begin have the best chance of reducing expected fut ure dispute duration. Following this initial period, subsequent mediation e fforts lead to longer rather than shorter disputes. After a long period, me diation again leads to shorter rather than longer disputes. We also find th at there should be consistency in the mediators used to manage a conflict r ather than shifting personnel to interject new ideas.