Probability of future climatically significant volcanic eruptions

A number of climate model predictions indicate that the global average temp erature should rise another 0.1 degrees-0.3 degrees C in the next 10-15 yr, thereby rising above the noise level of natural variability. However, volc anic eruptions could mask the CO2 effect and complicate discussions on a gr eenhouse gas protocol. The authors quantify this possibility by creating a volcano eruption probability density function from a 600-yr-long record of Northern Hemisphere eruptions. Results indicate that there is a substantial probability of one or two eruptions with a radiative impact greater than - 1 W m(-2) (approximate to 37% and 15% respectively) in the next decade, and a 15%-25% chance of a single large eruption (-3 W m(-2) or greater).