ALLIANCE DURATION AND DEMOCRACY - AN EXTENSION AND CROSS-VALIDATION OF DEMOCRATIC-STATES AND COMMITMENT IN INTERNATIONAL-RELATIONS

Neoliberal institutionalism suggests that the international behavior o f democracies differs from that of other regime types. This paper exte nds and cross-validates the empirical analyses in Gaubatz (1996). In t he research update here, alliances are analyzed over the period 1815-1 993. A discrete-time event history analysis (EHA) is employed to estim ate the hazard rate. Validating Gaubatz's finding, the addition of dem ocratic members to an alliance has a significant negative impact on th e probability of alliance failure. This relationship exists even when controlling for the number of members in the alliance, the type of all iance, the number of major powers in the alliance, and periods of worl d war.