Interest rates, exchange rates and present value models of the current account

Citation
Pr. Bergin et Sm. Sheffrin, Interest rates, exchange rates and present value models of the current account, ECON J, 110(463), 2000, pp. 535-558
Citations number
22
Categorie Soggetti
Economics
Journal title
ECONOMIC JOURNAL
ISSN journal
00130133 → ACNP
Volume
110
Issue
463
Year of publication
2000
Pages
535 - 558
Database
ISI
SICI code
0013-0133(200004)110:463<535:IRERAP>2.0.ZU;2-5
Abstract
This paper develops a testable intertemporal model of the current account t hat allows for variable interest rates and exchange rates. These additional variables are channels through which external shocks may influence the dom estic current account. The restrictions from the theoretical model are subj ected to present value tests using quarterly data from three small open eco nomies. The paper finds that including the interest rate and exchange rate improves the fit of the intertemporal model over what was found in previous studies. The model predictions better replicate the volatility of current account data and better explain historical episodes of current account imba lance.