Six billion and counting: Trends and prospects for global population at the beginning of the twenty-first century

At the start of the twenty-first century, the world's population was four t imes what it had been at the start of the previous century. It is thus time ly to examine recent demographic trends as well as speculate on future pros pects. The main focus of this article is on mortality and fertility trends over the East 30 to 40 years; the factors which have contributed to changes in mortality and fertility mtes; and the prospects for their continuing de cline. Of the various factors which have influenced and will continue to in fluence demographic change, two are highlighted here - the HIV/AIDS pandemi c and the effects of female education. As discussed in the concluding secti on, population projections can be based on a variety of assumptions, each p roducing a different result. However; one thing that is certain is that pop ulation numbers will continue to rise as toe move forward into the twenty-f irst century, with a growing proportion living in the developing regions of the world.