The important components of reliability projection are investigated. Accele
ration parameters are obtained for a 1.6 nm oxide with a soft breakdown cri
terion. Based on the physical percolation model, the voltage scaling factor
for time to breakdown is found to increase with lower voltage, explaining
the experimental observation of 6.7 +/- 0.4 dec V-1 for the 1.6 nm oxide, T
he distribution of breakdown times is shown to be sensitive to thickness va
riation across the test wafer, and a Weibull slope of 1.38 +/- 0.1 was obta
ined. The temperature dependence of the time to breakdown was found to be n
on-Arrhenius and to have a slope of 0.02 dec degrees C-1. Using these param
eters, the 1.6 nm oxide was found to have a 10 year lifetime with a 100 ppm
failure rate for 1.3 V operation at 100 degrees C. Our understanding of so
ft breakdown is described as well as an investigation of device operation a
fter soft breakdown, which may further improve the reliability projection.