Valuing water supply reliability

Instead of creating water supply systems that fully insulate mankind from c limate-imposed water deficiencies, it is possible that fur municipal water systems a nonzero probability of water supply shortfall is efficient. Perfe ct water supply reliability, meaning no chance of future shortfall, is not optimal when water development costs are high. Designing an efficient strat egy requires an assessment of consumer preferences pertaining to the reliab ility of water supply. Contingent valuations of both current and future sho rtfalls are reported. The consistency of these measures is gauged using an expected utility model.