UNCERTAINTY MODELING - EXAMPLES AND ISSUES

New techniques in uncertainty analysis are illustrated with simplified examples from recent applications of interest for safety science. The applications are: BLEVE (boiling liquid expanding vapor explosions) m odels, satellite life distributions, dispersion coefficients and model ing contamination in food chains. The examples illustrate the importan ce of carefully modeling dependence in uncertainties. They also illust rate new uses of conditional Monte Carte sampling. (C) 1997 Elsevier S cience Ltd.