Simplified CPM/PERT simulation model

Formal stochastic simulation study has been recognized as a remedy for the shortcomings inherent to classic critical path method (CPM) project evaluat ion and review technique (PERT) analysis. An accurate and efficient method of identifying critical activities is essential for conducting PERT simulat ion. This paper discusses the derivation of a PERT simulation model, which incorporates the discrete event modeling approach and a simplified critical activity identification method. This has been done in an attempt to overco me the limitations and enhance the computing efficiency of classic CPM/PERT analysis. A case study was conducted to validate the developed model and c ompare it to classic CPM/PERT analysis. The developed model showed marked e nhancement in analyzing the risk of project schedule overrun and determinat ion of activity criticality. In addition, the beta distribution and its sub jective fitting methods are discussed to complement the PERT simulation mod el. This new solution to CPM network analysis can provide project managemen t with a convenient tool to assess alternative scenarios based on computer simulation and risk analysis.