We study elections in which one party (the strong party) controls a source
of political unrest; e.g., this party could instigate riots if it lost the
election. We show that the strong party is more likely to win the election
when there is less information about its ability to cause unrest. This is b
ecause when the weak party is better informed, it can more reliably prevent
political unrest by implementing a "centrist" policy. When there is uncert
ainty over the credibility of the threat, "posturing" by the strong party l
eads to platform divergence.