A CRITICAL-EVALUATION OF THE 1992 PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT FOR THE WASTE-ISOLATION-PILOT-PLANT

Helton et al. (Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safety 51 (1996) 53) present details and results of the 1992 performance assessment for the Waste Isolatio n Pilot Plant. The present paper is a critical evaluation of the 1992 performance assessment for the Waste isolation Pilot Plant. This evalu ation is based on current practice in performance assessment and wheth er the performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant has been conservative in stating the safety case for the Waste Isolation P ilot Plant. Results of independent analyses are compared with those of the 1992 performance assessment. We challenge two key assumptions in the 1992 performance assessment that led to non-conservative results. The predicted release rate of radionuclides appears to be underestimat ed owing to the use of expert elicited solubilities. The overall relea se has been underestimated owing to the use of improperly elicited hum an intrusion probabilities. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A.