Modelling the effects of mink and habitat fragmentation on the water vole

1. The decline of the water vole Arvicola terrestris in the UK has been att ributed to the spread of the introduced American mink Mustela vison. Unders tanding the causes and dynamics of this decline is vital to water vole cons ervation. We investigated the dynamics of water voles in relation to habita t fragmentation and mink predation using an individual-based spatially expl icit model of population dynamics on the River Windrush, Oxfordshire, UK. 2. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken using values for life-history para meters drawn from known ranges using Latin hypercube sampling. Partial corr elation coefficients were used to estimate how the predicted size of water vole population and extinction were determined by the life-history paramete rs. The model was then validated by comparing model predictions with observ ed distributions of water voles. 3. The effects of mink predation and habitat fragmentation on the future vi ability of water vole populations on the River Windrush were analysed after artificially manipulating habitat fragmentation on the river and running t he model in the presence and absence of mink predation. 4. The match between predicted and observed distributions was significantly related to home range requirement and high reproductive success. At low fr agmentation, home range requirement was the most important influence on the number of populations. Reproductive output, and adult and juvenile mortali ty, became increasingly important with increased fragmentation. At high lev els of fragmentation demographic stochasticity had a large influence on pop ulation size. 5. We deduce that the importance of demography in determining population pe rsistence will depend on the level of fragmentation. Additionally, life-his tory parameters that are crucial to the viability of water vole populations can only be identified in the context of the landscape in which population s are found. 6. The extinction of water vole on the River Windrush became more likely as habitat fragmentation and mink predation increased. Mink predation effecti vely doubled the probability of extinction over that arising from fragmenta tion alone. 7. These simulations indicate that extant populations on the Windrush are n ow so fragmented that populations may not be viable even in the absence of mink predation. We assessed the extent of habitat restoration necessary to ensure population persistence on the River Windrush and considered developm ents of the model for use in water vole conservation.