Estimating demand for a cycle-way network

We study the use of bicycles as an alternative mode of transport in Santiag o.-We consider the incorporation of a dense network of cycle-ways, fully se gregated from motorised traffic, and the inclusion of adequate bicycle shel ter facilities at Metro, suburban train and selected segregated bus-way sta tions. We designed and applied a methodology which included: (i) a review o f national and international experience; (ii) focus group surveys; (iii) a household survey including stated preference experiments for potential bicy cle users; (iv) estimation of various models with this data, and (v) model application using extra data available for the whole of the city. Our resul ts indicate that there are sectors of the city where bikes could capture mo re than 10% of the trips, and that, on average, the use of bicycles could j ump from its current 1.6% to approximately 5.8%. Finally, our results also show clearly that;trip length is a fundamental variable; therefore, land us e policies geared to the development of urban sub-centres could have a sign ificant impact in the future of this clean and efficient mode of transport. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.