Analytical simulation and PROFAT II: a new methodology and a computer automated tool for fault tree analysis in chemical process industries

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is based on constructing a hypothetical tree of b ase events (initiating events) branching into numerous other sub-events, pr opagating the fault and eventually leading to the top event (accident). It has been a powerful technique used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries. As the systematic articulation of the fault tree is associated with assigning probabilities to each fault, the exercise is also sometimes called probabilistic risk assessment. But p owerful as this technique is, it is also very cumbersome and costly, limiti ng its area of application, We have developed a new algorithm based on analytical simulation (named as AS-II), which makes the application of FTA simpler, quicker, and cheaper; t hus opening up the possibility of its wider use in risk assessment in chemi cal process industries. Based on the methodology we have developed a comput er-automated tool. The details are presented in this paper. (C) 2000 Elsevi er Science B.V. All rights reserved.