Structural changes in developing countries and their implication for energy-related CO2 emissions

The concept of "structural shifts" has various meanings. In this study, we discuss structural shifts as they relate to the issue of climate change. Th e concept of "Sustainable Development" is emerging as one of the major chal lenges for economic development. Although the 20th century has generally be en recognized as the era of "competition of ideologies," it is widely belie ved that the new international economic order of the 21st century will emer ge under the paradigm of sustainable development. In this sense, structural shifts may be redefined for both developed and developing countries. To en visage shifts in the next century, several key driving forces must be consi dered. First is the utilization of the natural endowments of a country, inc luding climate and natural resources. Second is the size of land and popula tion, population growth trends, and population composition. Patterns of urb anization, economic, and industrial structures, technological diffusion, an d institutional and legal mechanisms are closely related to the patterns an d strategies for economic development in each country as part of the new in ternational economic order. We assess the dynamics of structural shifts thr ough the interaction of all these driving forces. This paper examines histo rical development patterns and common features of developed countries to an alyze both developed and developing countries' future adaptation processes to the new global concerns of climate change. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc .