Quantification of the IS99 emission scenario storylines using the atmospheric stabilization framework

In 1997-1999, an international team of scientists and modelers formulated a set of 40 global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios were designed as quantitative interpretations of four distinct scenario sto rylines that described alternative views on the global and regional demogra phic, socioeconomic, technological, and environmental development in the 21 st century. The Atmospheric Stabilization Framework (ASF) was one of the si x models selected to develop the scenarios, which are referred to here as I S99 scenarios. The ASF-based (IS99-ASF) results include four GHG emissions scenarios and corresponding changes in the GHG atmospheric concentrations a nd the global average temperature. The IS99-ASF scenarios were generated by modifying such model inputs as: regional GNP/capita growth; ultimately rec overable fossil fuel resources; supply-side and end-use energy efficiency; the availability of renewable energy resources; and terrestrial carbon sink s. According to the ASF-based analysis, the largest cumulative GHG emission s and climate effects over the next century result from a combination of fa st economic growth, a delayed reduction of the energy and carbon intensity of GNP, and an increase of the coal share in the primary energy supply (ASF -A1 scenario). At the same time, a slightly lower GNP growth rate combined with an increased use of renewable energy sources leads to the lowest cumul ative GHG emissions and the stabilization of the CO2 atmospheric concentrat ion by 2100 at about 615 ppmv (ASF-B1 scenario). (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.