The development of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using an extension of the MARIA model for the assessment of resource and energy technologies

This article describes an extended version of an integrated assessment mode l called MARIA (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation ) and how it was applied to develop global and regional greenhouse gas (GHG ) emission scenarios. The model has been developed to assess the potential contribution of fossil, biomass, nuclear, and other energy technologies and land use change to future GHG emissions. It also incorporates a simple car bon cycle and climate change model. Other extensions of MARIA include a hig her degree of geographical disaggregation into eight world regions and a mo re detailed nuclear fuel cycle. The article describes how the model was use d to develop GHG emission scenarios based on narrative storylines and to as sess mitigation srategies that would lead to the stabilization of atmospher ic GHG concentrations. The results indicate that zero-carbon technologies s uch as fast breeder reactors and carbon sequestration technologies can make a significant contribution toward emissions mitigation, especially when dr astic reductions are envisaged. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.