Industrial non-energy, non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions

In this article we project emissions of three groups of greenhouse gases-pe rfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), and hydrofluorocarbons ( HFCs)-through the year 2100. These gases were added to the gases CO2, CH4 a nd N2O under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Conven tion on Climate Change. The emission projections are based on the projectio ns for population and GDP, as well as the qualitative descriptions of the f our storylines (A1, A2, B1, and B2) developed within an international, inte rdisciplinary effort to formulate new greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenari os reported in this issue. To cover industrial non-energy, non-CO2 greenhou se gases, emission projections of N2O from the production of adipic acid we re also calculated. Emission trajectories for CFCs, HCFCs, halons, carbon t etrachloride, methyl chloroform and methyl bromide were included by directl y using the Montreal Protocol scenario (A3) from the 1998 Scientific Assess ment of Ozone Depletion. There are three main ways of estimating the future trends for the emissions of the greenhouse gases discussed in this article : the increases could be linear, they could follow an S-curve, or they coul d be exponential, proportional to GDP development. This article refers to e xisting studies using these methods and integrates them, The result of the calculations shows that the total emission range for the industrial non-ene rgy, non-CO2 greenhouse gases is within 0.5-1.3 GtC in the period 2010-2100 , when total emissions of CFCs and HCFCs are low. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.