Applications of seasonal to interannual climate prediction in agriculturalplanning and operations

Climate determines the general adaptation of ecosystems and land use activi ties at any location. Year to year recurrences of extreme climate events su ch as drought, flooding, hot/cold spells, etc. often have far reaching cons equences in agriculture. Advance warning of such events through climate pre diction can minimize various socio-economic problems which are often associ ated with such events. The severity of the socio-economic impacts of climat e related stress varies significantly from one region to another. The impac ts are generally more severe in many developing countries where technologic al adaptations are often very low, and where most of the agricultural syste ms are rain dependent. Socio-economic challenges of the next century will include population press ure, industrialization, environmental degradation, and anthropogenic climat e change issues, among others. Thus some climate stress in this century may be able to induce far more serious socio-economic disasters in the next ce ntury. Advance warning of impending extreme climate events, especially with in time scales of months to years, would provide vital information which co uld be used for sustainable agricultural production. Such early warning inf ormation can also form crucial components of national/regional disaster pre paredness system which will help to minimise loss of life and property incl uding damage to agricultural investments. This review has addressed the basic linkages between climate and agricultur al systems, the current state of climate prediction science and technology, together with their potential advancements in the next century. The last p art of the review highlights the challenges of optimum applications of clim ate information and prediction products in agricultural planning and operat ions in the next century. Vital to such an effort are the availability of g ood databases, skilled multidisciplinary human resources, co-operation betw een scientists and product users to improve the use of climate prediction p roducts, and to investigate technological and natural adaptations aimed at mitigating the effects of extreme weather. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. A ll rights reserved.