MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION OF CESIUM-137 MET ABOLISM - CALCULATION OF POPULATION RISK

Detailed mathematical analysis of the metabolism of cesium-137, which first appeared in the environment as a result of nuclear weapon testin g in the atmosphere, made it possible to estimate the irradiation for the population of the U.S.A. with reference to sex and age during the entire life until death. In parallel, demographic analysis of mortalit y due to leucosis from 1950 until 1986 has shown cohorts of elevated m ortality risk in two age groups: 0-1 and 45-54 years, starting from 19 53. The radiation component of mortality was plotted for a set of coho rts as a function of the irradiation dose until the moment of death. A dditional mortality risk was calculated for 1963 and 1967: 5.9 and 2.3 additional deaths per 1000 subjects per 1 Gy, respectively. The poten tial of demographic methods for assessment of the ecological situation has been shown.