Making exchange entitlements operational: The food economy approach to famine prediction and the RiskMap computer program

The effect of production failure or some other shock on household income an d food supply depends upon: (a) the pattern of household income, and (b) it s ability to compensate for any deficit which may have occurred, for exampl e, by the sale of assets or finding additional paid employment. The corolla ry is that the prediction of the likely effect of some event on the future state of the economy or food supply of a population of households requires an understanding of the economy of the households concerned and the economi c context to which these relate, This paper describes an attempt to develop , all approach to prediction using a dynamic model of economy based on quan titative descriptions of household economy obtained by systematic vapid fie ld-work and summarises the experience of the nse of this approach to date.