Household resource allocations in response to risks and returns in a communal area of western Zimbabwe

A household production model is constructed in the context of a subsistence economy, influenced by fluctuating rainfall, increasing populations, and r elationships to the natural resource base. Households are modelled as attem pting to optimally allocate their resources among four sectors: agriculture , woodlands (with wood and non-wood sub-sectors), livestock and urban. Simu lations show that, although welfare decreases over the 50-year simulation p eriod, the resource base appears to be able to sustain the increased pressu re. Data to feed the model are limited, implying further research is needed on: resources expended by households by sector, perceptions of risk, and d ifferentiation within and among households according to gender and wealth. Despite data limitations, results show the importance of considering that h ouseholds may allocate resources between multiple sectors, as these options may buffer their welfare from rainfall shocks and increasing population pr essures. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.