Using resource economics to anticipate forest land use change in the US mid-Atlantic region

Demands for forest, farm, and developed land are evolving in the U.S. mid-A tlantic region. The demand for land in developed uses, as well as demands f or various forest and farm products are changing in response to population growth, demographic shifts, and market forces. As demand factors change so do relative land values. Land area in future forest, farm, and developed us es may shift as landowners re-evaluate relative net benefits from land use alternatives. This study examines the effects of various land demand and su pply factors on the determination of land use patterns in the mid-Atlantic region. Driving variables include costs and benefits from various uses, pop ulation density, and measures of land quality. Model parameters are estimat ed using a binomial logit procedure. Results from the study are used to est imate proportions of forest area on a county by county basis. Simulated for est landscapes under hypothetical future conditions are prepared and illust rated using geographic information system (GIS) techniques.