Declining public pensions in an era of demographic ageing: Will private provision fill the gap?

Demographic crisis and imprudent commitments have induced a crisis in publi c pension programmes in OECD countries. Will present and prospective cutbac ks lead to greater private saving, either ill the form of private pension p rovision or in other forms of saving? The paper surveys existing evidence, and provides new results on three questions: Do individuals substitute priv ate for public provision of savings when public pension programmes are cut back 'voluntarily? Do individuals respond to incentives to join sponsored o r tax subsidised arrangements if encouraged by the government? And, if indi viduals are prepared to make such arrangements, and where saving is volunta ry, do they save 'enough' to replace previous prospective public pension fl ows? (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification H55; E21.