The role of the thermohaline circulation in controlling export production,
oxygenation of deep waters, and hence possible sapropel formation in the ea
stern Mediterranean is examined using a simple nutrient-cycling model. The
model is driven by velocity fields from a general circulation model and rec
eives fluxes of nutrient from river run-off and atmospheric deposition. The
model is used to study three scenarios: a strong anti-estuarine circulatio
n, a weakened anti-estuarine circulation, and a weak estuarine circulation.
Nutrient transports, ventilation of oxygen, and deposition of organic matt
er are investigated in each case. With a present-day circulation the model
provides reasonable agreement with observed phosphate and oxygen profiles a
nd for export production. With the weakened anti-estuarine circulation, con
sistent with surface salinity reconstructions for the most recent sapropel
S-1, there is a modest increase in export production and reduced ventilatio
n leading to anoxia in intermediate and deep waters. Sapropel formation is
possible near the coastal margins, particularly if there is enhanced river
run-off. With an estuarine circulation, there is significant increase in ex
port production in addition to anoxia below a shallow winter mixed layer. W
hile both the latter circulations allow sapropel formation in the model, th
e estuarine case is distinguished by higher organic carbon deposition and a
noxia in the near-surface waters.